Scenarios: where are PV payments heading?
Start from what each cohort was paid in 2025 and its known exit date, then change the assumptions. The baseline uses the default values; every change is measured against it.
MaStR capacity of all new EEG solar plants, including those that claim no payment. Default 17.5 GW: average of 2024 and 2025.
Average fixed tariff or value to be applied (anzulegender Wert). Default 7.5: what the 2024 cohort was paid per kWh, with the market premium counted as premium plus market value.
Sets the net cost and the market premium. 2025: 4.51 ct/kWh (Jahresmarktwert Solar of the TSOs).
Baseline 2026–2040€104.0 bncumulative payments
Scenario 2026–2040€104.0 bncumulative payments
Difference€00.0% vs. baseline
Fleet forecast: existing exits plus new build
Per year, 2026–20402030Baseline: €8.59 bnScenario: €8.59 bnDifference: €0
BaselineScenario
Existing plants keep their 2025 payments until they exit; the 2026 cohort is estimated from MaStR registrations. The market premium is recomputed from each cohort's value to be applied and the market value. New plants count from 2027, with half a year in their first year.